Ten Trump Election Lessons

Donald TrumpThere are always lessons that we can learn from the results any election, but when one is the most stunning upset in US political history we really need to pay attention. Here are the first lessons that come to mind:

1) Money isn’t what it used to be. Trump won spending about five dollars per vote…half of what Hillary spent. That’s not to say that money doesn’t matter. It helps you communicate and organize. But this totally upends what the “smart people” who try to get big donors to waste millions of dollars constantly tell us.

2) Free media matters! And being able to go above the media with your own outlets matters too. (See #1)

3) Being politically incorrect won’t kill you. Hopefully other candidates will learn to take off the political correctness filter. Don’t be so buttoned down and afraid of the media. Channel what your target voters are thinking. And doing so can get you free media. (See #2)

4) Staying on message matters…a lot. Because the “message” matters. This one speaks for itself.

5) Republicans don’t have to pander to win (repeat…Republicans don’t have to pander to win). Note that Trump got a higher percentage of the black, Hispanic and Asian vote than Romney did…using a message that the “smart people” (who showed us how to lose) said would kill us with minorities. A blue-collar, middle-America message appeals across racial lines.

6) Evangelicals are a growth market. Trump got a higher share of evangelicals (81%) than Romney, McCain or Bush…and there are tens of millions more that still don’t vote. It’s the second most loyal demographic – and the largest pool of untapped votes – in American politics. Keep in mind that any real growth that we will ever see among minority groups will come from those sitting in church somewhere on Sunday mornings. That means that religious liberty issues matter.

7) The Rust Belt is the GOP’s presidential future. I’ve been saying this for years. The future of our winning/keeping the presidency lies in combining most of the South with the Rust Belt; meaning blue-collar voters and Catholics (of which Trump won 52% nationally). And they don’t like globalism and open borders.

8) Yes, nationalism can win – and that’s a good thing. And yes, it can “co-exist” with conservatism – especially given the fact that a large percentage of self-identified real world conservatives (not ivory tower egg-heads) also subscribe to an America First (i.e. “nationalist”) message. The pharisaical, legalistic “conservatives” who claim that true conservatism = globalism will lead us to nothing but a further divided, less successful conservative movement and party. (See #7)

9) We can see shadows of realignment. While not a technical electoral realignment by political science standards, this was the leading edge of one, seeing us win states that we haven’t carried since Reagan was on the ballot. This “message” (and even better messengers) can expand that market and bring about a real political realignment for the Republican Party. Not to try would be political malpractice. (See #8)

10) Successful politics is about addition and multiplication. And that starts with unity. Now is our opportunity to bring new people in and build something bigger than what we had.

I’m sure other lessons will become self-evident (or may be right now), but these are some that Republicans should take to heart.  Pass it on!

Know Your Environment

Before you can put together a good plan for any type of campaign, you have to have good information. That means that you need an honest evaluation of the things that will have an impact on the campaign and its ability to succeed. In other words, you need to know your environment. It’s like the water that you’re going to have to swim in.

In political campaigns, knowing your environment means knowing any outside influences, knowing the campaigns and/or candidates themselves, knowing the issues and the media that you may have to deal with. If you’re aware of what the environment will be like, then you’ll know what your plan needs to address and what you need to plan around – or even try to leverage to your advantage.

Here’s how to break it down:

Know the Outside Influences:

Whether you like it or not there are some outside factors that aren’t related to you or the opposition that can have an impact on any campaign. You need to take them into account and determine what kind of difference they could make.

Below is a short list of items to consider, but make note of anything else that could have a major impact.

• If it’s an election, what other races are on the ballot? President, governor, senator, representative? State and/or local races? Are any of them popular (or unpopular) enough to impact voter turnout?
• Are candidates in other races likely to draw more favorable or unfavorable voters to the polls?
• Major endorsements? (Who’s supported by the big names, and will it matter?)
• Are there any key referendums on the ballot?
• If it’s a lobbying campaign, who supports and opposes it? Establishment/insiders or outsiders?
• Are there any special interest groups or coalitions at work? Will they help or hurt?
• Who can you expect to work against you? If it’s an election, how is all of this likely to impact voter turnout?
• What are the economic conditions? What impact will they have?
• Is there an intense anti-establishment atmosphere?
• List any key events or dates between now and the election (or any key vote that you may be lobbying) and how they could impact the campaign.

The more that you know about the outside factors that you can’t control, and the events that are looming on the horizon, the better the chances that a campaign plan will be realistic about what you can and can’t do. The point is to try to avoid creating a plan that runs smack into reality or events that you could have anticipated.

It will help you avoid having a plan that forces you to swim against the tide – or at least give you a realistic idea of just how hard you’re going to have to swim!

Know the Campaigns:

The next step is to take a realistic look at the campaign itself, as well as the opposition. What are the strengths and weaknesses? Does it have what it needs? Is it likely to? Sketch out an honest profile of both sides. Start with a simple “T” chart for strengths on one side and weaknesses on the other. Pull this basic information together and review it.

Take a good look at the opposition as well as your own campaign from several different perspectives, then specifically focus on doing more detailed research of the opposition.

Candidate profiles would include:
• Biography / Resume – (On paper, who looks more qualified and has the best story to tell?)
• Personal strengths and weaknesses – (Of candidates and campaign leadership)
• Stands on the Issues – (If it’s a candidate campaign, any flip-flops or philosophical problems?)
• Support from special interests – (Which political groups are involved for whom, and does it hurt or help?)
• Political experience – (Does anyone have any? Past campaigns? Does anyone have experienced or “smart” help?)
• Financial support – (What kind of donors? Self-funding? Access to donors?)
• Resources – (Does either campaign have what it needs to win, or is it likely to?)
• News clippings – (Collect any useful news clips / articles on the issue or candidates)
• Existing networks – (Who’s well connected and has access to others to build support)

Opposition Research: most of the information below can usually be found with the government body they represent.
• Votes and/or stands on issues: are they consistent?
• Accomplishments – (What have they sponsored or co-sponsored? Have any of their proposals become law?)
• Attendance records – (Did they show up for work regularly or not?)
• Campaign and personnel finance disclosures – (Look for any position switches within days of getting major contributions)
• Any resume inflation?

What jumps out as an obvious weakness that the public would care about? Why is that? Know the answers and you will be able to plan to exploit and leverage your strengths and the opposition’s weaknesses. You’ll know what “ground” you would rather fight on.

Sun Tzu put it this way, “If you know the enemy and know yourself, you need not fear the results of a hundred battles”. Don’t’ lose on account of ignorance.

Know the Issues:

Whether you’re running a grassroots organization, a lobbying campaign or an election campaign, issues matter. As legendary South Carolina political consultant Lee Atwater used to say “Issues win campaigns”, and he was exactly right. Issues win campaigns because campaigns are about people…and people are moved by issues.

Issues can be used to unite voters behind a cause or a candidate, or divide them away from one. They can also be used to compliment a candidate or group’s image, if they’re consistent with the current image, or what you want to portray.

Choose the Right Issues. Most people hate politics. They don’t usually get involved in it because they’re bored and lying around with nothing to do. Something motivates them. They care about something. Take the time to find out what that is.

Find the issues that are relevant to the people whose support you need – AND that are important enough to move them to take action. The kind of issues that not only motivate people, but that sometimes may even divide your supporters passionately from your opponents.

In many cases it can even work to your advantage to make an election, a vote that you may be lobbying, or even a PR campaign, into a “referendum” on a specific issue or group of issues. In other words, you can piggy-back on public support for an issue that people care about by equating support for your cause or campaign with support for that issue.

Take a look at the issue environment and determine which issues will have the greatest impact on your campaign, (or could if they caught fire).

You can check any recent polls that have been done that mention specific issues, make note of those that get a lot of play in “letters-to-the-editor”, consider doing a “focus group” of campaign supporters and reviewing major issues with them, or even send a web-based “issues survey” or poll to everyone on your email lists.

• List the “hottest” issues?
• List issues that have the potential to be “hot”?
• List those that are relevant to the supporters that you need

Remember that in order for an issue to have an impact, people must be aware of it – AND the differences between you and the opposition. They have to be highlighted aggressively and repeatedly.

Know the Media:

Communications are a critical part of any type of political campaign and, like it or not, that usually means dealing with the media, (both the “old” and “new” varieties). In order to do that effectively you need to gather some basic information about who you will be dealing with.

List all media outlets that would conceivably cover your campaign or issue: ex. radio, TV, newspapers, blogs and other notable outlets. List key contact information, political ad rates, deadlines and endorsement policies
Determine which outlets will be most relevant to the campaign and how to use them. (Ex., blogs, Facebook, Twitter, Supporter social media accounts, etc.)
ID and create a list of key social media contacts (ex., media, bloggers, key “influentials”). Communicate and share campaign updates with them on a regular basis

***

Follow these steps and make sure you have a realistic view of the environment the campaign will take place in – and be prepared to deal with it (or even leverage it)!

 

The Fundamentals of Political Campaigns

It’s a fundamental truth of politics that if you don’t win, you can’t govern.

You can’t implement policy if you aren’t elected to a position that allows you to do so, or if you don’t have sympathetic elected officials that are willing to help. With that being the case, it’s critical that conservatives know the basics of effective campaigning if we expect to see our ideas implemented in government.

The good news is that the fundamentals of successful campaigns are the same today as they were thousands of years ago.

Julius Caesar once said that the only thing needed to conquer the world was “men and money”. Modify that idea slightly by adding “message” and you’ve got a thumbnail sketch of what political campaigns are all about.

They’re known as “the Three M’s”

The Fundamental Elements of Campaigns:

  • Manpower: Do you have the supporters that can build a successful campaign organization?
  • Money: Do you have the resources to identify, inform and mobilize your supporters – and get your message out to the public?
  • Message: What are you saying – and does it motivate people to get involved?

These three elements are universal to all campaigns. They don’t change.

They are “elements” in the sense that virtually every aspect of a campaign’s organization and activity revolves around one of them. That means that you should arrange your campaign accordingly around those areas of responsibility, (ex. communications, fundraising and organization). Don’t make things any more complicated than they absolutely need to be.

Regardless of whether a campaign is national, state or local in scope, the objective is the same. To win. Having the most devoted and numerous volunteers, the most money (or enough) and the most compelling message goes a long way towards that goal.

In addition to being the fundamental “elements” of campaigns, they are also the fundamental sources of political strength.

Don’t forget it.

The Fundamental Imperatives of Campaigns:

The same principles that apply to successful grassroots activism also apply to political campaigns. Generally speaking, there are three fundamental imperatives for any election campaign:

  1. Identify and organize your supporters
  2. Inform them
  3. Mobilize them

They are “imperatives” in the sense that virtually everything that a campaign does should accomplish one of these items.

Without identified people who are willing to support the campaign, you don’t have a campaign. Without information (built around the campaign’s “message”), you can’t motivate people – and they can’t help educate and motivate others to join the effort. And if they’re not mobilized to turn out (and help turn out others) on Election Day, you’ll lose.

These three “imperatives” should constitute the vast majority of the time, resources and effort spent on behalf of any campaign. Use them to evaluate all of the campaign’s activity, in the terms of: “does it accomplish any of the three imperatives”.

If it doesn’t, think twice.

The Four Rules to Winning a Campaign:

When it comes to winning an election, it’s not complicated. It’s not some secret formula that you need to pay a lot of money for, and it hasn’t changed since this country first started holding elections. You need more votes than the other guy (or gal).

The “rules” for how to make that happen were spelled out best by someone who (at the time) was a little known congressman from Illinois who went on to get himself elected President.

It’s a straightforward “mobilization” plan that derives from the fundamental “imperatives” listed above.

  1. Obtain a complete list of voters
  2. Determine how they will vote
  3. Contact the favorable voters
  4. Get your voters to the polls

In other words, start with the outer rings of the target and work your way down towards the bulls-eye. When it comes to summarizing the basics of a “get-out-the-vote” strategy, you can’t do much better than that.

Of course there are a number of other aspects to running a campaign, but they don’t really matter very much if you don’t do the basics. No matter how much modern technology may change “how” things are done, the fundamentals still apply.

No matter what kind of political or issue-based campaign you’re working on, don’t let yourself get sidetracked.

Do the fundamentals. You’ll be glad you did.

Issues Win Campaigns

Whether you’re running a grassroots organization, a lobbying campaign or an election campaign, issues matter.

As legendary South Carolina political consultant Lee Atwater used to say “Issues win campaigns”, and he was exactly right. Issues win campaigns because campaigns are about people…and people are moved by issues.

Issues can be used to unite voters behind a cause or candidate, or divide them away from a cause or candidate that they may currently support. They can also be used to compliment a candidate or group’s image, if they’re consistent with the image that you want to portray.

Choose the Right Issues

Most people hate politics. They don’t typically get involved because they’ve got too much spare time on their hands. Something motivates them. They care about something. Find out what that is.

Find issues that are relevant to the people whose support you need and that are important enough to move them to take action. The kind that not only motivate people, but that sometimes may even divide your supporters from your opponents – passionately.

In many cases it can even work to your advantage to make an election, a vote you’re lobbying, or even a PR campaign, into a “referendum” on a specific issue or group of issues. In other words, you can piggy-back on public support for an issue that people care about by equating support for your cause or campaign with support for that issue.

Highlight Your Issues

Don’t try to talk about every issue under the sun. It’s one thing to have a lot of issue positions as part of a platform, but that doesn’t mean that you spend all of your time and resources talking about all of them. Focus on YOUR issues.

Remember that in order for issues to have an impact, people must be aware of the differences between you and the opposition. They have to be highlighted aggressively and repeatedly.

Zoom in on the few issues that will do your cause or campaign the most good…and then wear them out like a rented mule.

Three Fundamentals of Political Campaigns

It’s a fundamental truth of politics that if you don’t win, you can’t govern.

You can’t implement policy if you aren’t elected to a position that allows you to do so, or if you don’t have sympathetic elected officials that are willing to help.

With that being the case, it’s critical that conservatives know the basics of effective campaigning if we expect to see our ideas implemented in government.

The good news is that the fundamentals of a successful campaign of any type is the same today as it was thousands of years ago.

Julius Caesar once said that the only thing needed to conquer the world was “men and money”. Modify that idea slightly by adding “message” and you’ve got a good thumbnail sketch of what political campaigns are all about.

They’re known as “the Three M’s”:

  • Manpower: Do you have the supporters that can build a successful campaign organization?
  • Money: Do you have the resources to run a campaign that identifies, informs and mobilizes your supporters – and gets your message out?
  • Message: What are you saying? And does it motivate people to get involved?

These three elements are universal to all campaigns. They don’t change. That means that you should arrange your campaign accordingly (time, staff, etc.) around those areas of responsibility.

Regardless of whether a campaign is national, state or local in scope, the objective is the same. To win.

Having the most devoted and numerous volunteers, the most money (or enough) and the most compelling message goes a long way towards that goal.