What if they threw a shutdown and nobody noticed?
Despite Obama’s best efforts and dire warnings of what would happen if Republicans didn’t give him what he wanted, 80% of Americans in the latest AP poll say they’ve felt no impact from the shutdown.
The problem Democrats have is that the shutdown only impacts a small part of the budget, since debt payments, Social Security and Medicare are all mandatory spending. That’s why Obama has been reduced to ruining family vacations by ordering the National Park Service to “close” access to otherwise open-air monuments.
Another problem is that Democrats are becoming the political equivalent of the “boy who cried wolf”. Remember the sequester hysteria less than a year ago? There was almost as much hype over it as Y2K, and yet we’re all still here.
So, after all of the dire predictions of political oblivion for Republicans if they didn’t cave in, where are we?
A higher percentage of people do say they blame the GOP for the shutdown, but not nearly as many as during the last shutdown in 1995. And the latest “generic ballot” poll from Rasmussen shows both Republicans and Democrats pulling 40% in terms of “who would you vote for” if an election were held today.
Not to be lost in the shuffle is the fact that Obama’s approval rating in the latest AP poll is down to a record low of 37%, and a majority disapprove of his performance on the budget, (you probably missed that, right?).
So yes, there’s blame to go around. No it’s not apocalyptic. And yes, it’s also hurting Democrats too – especially Obama.
2013 is nothing like 1995.
Almost twenty years ago the “Big 3” networks, The Washington Post and The New York Times had about twice the audience as they do today. All we had was Rush. Now there’s an entire constellation of conservative talk-radio hosts, along with Fox News, a thriving network of websites, social media and the Tea Party. It’s also worth pointing out that Clinton’s approval numbers stayed above 50% during the last fight, unlike Obama’s today.
In the grand scheme of things however, the government shutdown is really just a sideshow.
The big deal is the pending increase in the national debt limit, and the Democrats’ fight to keep the GOP from using it as a way to force spending cuts. Democrats have to stop this as a matter of long term strategy since these limits will be coming up pretty much annually for the rest of our lives, giving Republicans ongoing leverage over spending.
Obama has suggested that by not giving in to his demand for an unconditional debt increase, Republicans will cause Americans to “run out on our tab” at the world’s financial buffet. But, as Mark Steyn noted recently, we don’t run out on our tab, we just never pay it off – which is the reason we have to raise our debt limit about one trillion dollars every year.
The good news for Republicans is that what’s good for the country is also good for the GOP politically. Here’s a little unsolicited advice:
Keep the focus on Obama and his unwillingness to negotiate. Make him look unreasonable.
Take “default” off the table. Pass a short-term debt extension to move the focus back to the budget, Obamacare and the fight over the shutdown. This would preserve leverage to come back and take another bite out of spending later.
Focus on the failures of Obamacare. From escalating costs to jobs lost, it continues to be a ripe target. Point out that only government could spend over half a billion dollars building a website that doesn’t work. Even Wolf Blitzer is saying the administration should delay the individual mandate for a year in order to get its act together. Point out that if Obamacare is “the right thing to do”, it should also be right for members of Congress, the President and the bureaucracy.
Stick and move. It’s hard to hit a moving target, so keep passing small bills funding sympathetic pieces of government, and letting Democrats reject them. Again, make them look unreasonable.
Focus on the spending and the debt. Americans know government spends too much and a large majority actually oppose raising the debt limit. 53% want major spending cuts as part of any debt limit increase. Point out that we have increased our debt at twice the rate of growth in our economy over the last two years and have no credible plan to fix the problem.
Stick to conservative principles. The last thing Republicans need is a high profile fight where they cave in on principles at the end.
Don’t snatch defeat from the jaws of victory.
Obamacare Promises vs Reality
That’s the first insult of the government’s healthcare site: it can’t competently sell you what you’re being forced to buy.
So, how did we get here? Because Obama and other Democrats made political promises that were necessary in order for the bill to have any chance of becoming law. Promises that turned out to be, shall we say, slightly less reliable than the standard infomercial.
Let’s review:
Promise: “If you like your health care plan, you can keep it”. Reality: you can’t keep your insurance plan if it is cancelled because the government tells your insurance company that it doesn’t comply with new regulations, or if your employer stops providing it because those regulations make the costs go up. In fact if you like your job you may not be able to keep it either – especially if your employer needs to drop enough employees to avoid higher costs; or you may lose hours on the job (and thus income) so as not to be deemed a full-time employee.
Promise: “If you like your doctor, you can keep your doctor”. Reality: not if he quits because of the costs and complications of the law, or if your “new” insurance plan doesn’t include your doctor in it’s network of approved providers.
Promise: Obamacare’s would not cover abortion. This was such a huge debate that there were several dozen pro-life Democrats who refused to support the bill until changes were made to guarantee abortion would not be covered. Reality: it does, because HHS regulations require that insurance plans cover prescriptions for abortion inducing medications – a regulation that even applies to religious organizations.
Promise: Congress will have to abide by it too. The bill required that members of Congress would have to live under the same rules that they were passing for the rest of us. Reality: Obama granted Congress a waiver, which he doesn’t have the power to do, (but what’s that between friends?). It really does make you wonder why we need to get so worked up over this business of passing laws if they don’t actually mean anything.
Promise: It will lower costs. Reality: most people are seeing increases in monthly premiums, even after government subsidies. And any plans that are actually cheaper come by way of narrowing the networks of hospitals and doctors you can use, or by raising your out-of-pocket expenses.
Promise: It will be easy! Per Obama, “It’s a website where you can compare and purchase affordable health insurance plans, side-by-side, the same way you shop for a plane ticket on Kayak – or the same way you shop for a TV on Amazon”. Reality: not so much. Three years and over half a billion tax dollars later, the government serves up a website that no one can use if they need to buy the insurance that the law says they must have.
Many Republicans have been worried that if Americans become accustomed to Obamacare, we will never get rid of it. A reasonable fear, when it comes to the political consequences of government programs, and precisely what Democrats hoped when they got bold enough to pass it despite never having the support of a majority of the American people. But the reality seems to be that Obamacare will be a political hobgoblin that will haunt Democrats for years to come.
This isn’t just a run-of-the-mill government program. It covers one-sixth of the US economy, and an area that is extremely personal to every American. That means lots of political exposure for Democrats – and lots of opportunities for Republicans.
It’s an ironclad rule of politics that things behind the scenes are much worse than they are presented to the public. Applied to Obamacare, this leaves many Democrats more nervous than they let on. But despite its flaws, Republicans in Congress will never help “fix it”. As they say in NASCAR, Democrats will have to “run what they’ve brought to the track”.
In the end, Obamacare may be a “bridge too far” for big government liberalism. It’s a failure that could ONLY come from government, and it puts a bright spotlight on the limitations of big government for our increasing number of “low information” voters to see.
As Margaret Thatcher once said, “First you win the argument, then you win the vote”. During the next few months conservatives should focus on the realities of Obamacare; to build and control the narrative while it’s still being written. This will provide all the argument we need to “win the vote” on this and many other issues in the future.
Undermining faith in big government will be a bonus.